11 March 2022 | ZebPay Trade-Desk
Bitcoin and other major altcoins are showing early signs that the bear trend is coming to an end, but overcoming higher levels may prove to be a challenge. Over the past week, investors seem to have been accumulating cryptocurrencies at lower levels.
Today started off with BTC jumping 2.5% and breaking through $40k on the CPI number, before swiftly crashing back down to new lows on the day. While everything was right on expectations, it seems that with the chaos in broader markets has created a lot of uncertainty, and with inflation concerns continuing to mount amidst peace talks that have broken down before they could even start, sellers have come in to pick up the mantle. Digging through these macro influenced moves, the name of the game in crypto seems to be hunting for yield. LUNA is up almost 30% in the past two days, THORchain is up 25%, and everyone is on the hunt to find a place to park their cash while waiting out the uncertainty.
Crypto resumed tracking other risk assets over last weekend as the news out of Ukraine continued to weigh on risk sentiment. Vols have stayed elevated across the board since weeks after reports that fires had broken out at one of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Signs of potential changes to US foreign policy stances to other oil producers like Iran and Venezuela over the weekend should indicate just how incredibly deep is the political anxiety over $4.00 gasoline. With regard to the Fed, it’s hard to see even the most aggressive inflation hawks being blind to the demand destruction caused by a sharp 50% hike in energy prices. In the past the Fed has sought to move off the zero bound in order to produce buffers to cut in times such as these. All these issues have dampened the macroeconomic outlook, which the markets seems to have factored in this week.
If Russia-Ukraine stabilises, or the market stops reacting as strongly to headlines from the region, it’s likely that the correlation breaks down a bit, and based on the three moves noted above, that seems as if it would be positive for crypto. And of course, if equities recover meaningfully, one would expect crypto to perform as the fastest horse, in a Betas sense.
Our desk traffic is up day-over-day with BTC crossing the desk about 1.5x as often as ETH. Both are seeing heavy profit-taking after the recent jump with buy/sell ratios getting skewed. Volume outside of majors has been low with some exceptions: AVAX is being scooped up, and SOL is seeing almost exclusive buy-side orders. On the flip side, LUNA) is seeing heavy profit-taking as investors seem to be comfortable with the ~65% gain over the past week. Hedge funds continue to be our most active persona and are the primary drivers of both BTC and ETH sales. Props and retail ags have also joined in the BTC sell off but are both buyers of SOL at these levels. Flows elsewhere have been relatively balanced across the client base.
Bitcoin is trading in a ‘Rising Channel’ and after making a ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern at $37,850 (Lower trendline of the channel) it showed good signs of recovery and the prices surged up to $42,426. However, the bulls failed to manage the grip on the asset and the prices dropped to $38,500. BTC is testing the ascending trendline (support of the rising channel), if the prices bounces from the support then we may expect the bulls to resume the up-move whereas a break below the channel will lead to further downfall. To witness a rally, BTC needs to close and sustain above $45,500.
ETH after taking multiple support at $2,400 made a ‘Long Legged Doji’ candle and started moving up. The asset broke the psychological level of $3,000 and made a high of $3,047. However, the prices didn’t sustain and closed above $3k mark and the asset corrected almost by 19.5% forming a ‘Lower Top Lower Lower Bottom’ pattern making the low of $2447.3. ETH, on a daily time frame, is trading on a ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern. Breakouts on either side of the pattern will further decide the trend for the asset.
BAT after making a ‘Dragonfly Doji’ Candle ast the support of $0.55 surged almost by 36% making the high of $0.7666. The asset faced stiff resistance at the key level of $0.75 and its 20 Day Moving Average and started moving down. Post this move, BAT is trading in a range from $0.74 to $0.6 forming a ‘Rectangle Pattern’ that indicates no trend (Sideways Movement). Breakouts on either side of the range with good volumes will decide the trend for the asset.
|USD ($)||03 Mar 22||10 Mar 22||Previous Week||Current Week|
|Cryptocurrency||1w – % Vol. Change (Global)|
- Romanian central bank approves blockchain firm Elrond to buy Twispay.
- The expansion of sanctions follows the commission announcing in February that it would be removing several Russian banks from the SWIFT cross-border payment network.
- The Prime Minister of Estonia has said cryptocurrencies must be restricted in order to address loopholes that may be used by sanctioned Russian entities
- The Avalanche Foundation has just announced a new incentives program that seeks to put subnets, a core trait of the Avalanche protocol, in the sights of developers.
*Sources of charts: https://cryptowat.ch, https://pro.zebpay.com/trade/USDT-INR
Disclaimer: This report is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. All investors should consider such factors in consultation with a professional advisor of their choosing when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The Company has prepared this report based on information available to it, including information derived from public sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of the information, opinions or conclusions expressed herein. This report is preliminary and subject to change; the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the reports to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Trading & Investments in cryptocurrencies viz. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum etc.are very speculative and are subject to market risks. The analysis by the Author is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice.